Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Our Saturday turned out to be an interesting one across the area. To start the morning out, we had one upper-level wave bring in showers and t-storms as temperatures held steady. Before we got the afternoon and evening round of rain and t-storms going, we saw temperatures push a little milder than we expected. With dry time and partly sunny skies peaking out during the late morning hours and into the afternoon, we saw highs push into the lower 70s in Joplin with the rest of the area pushing into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
It was the mild temperatures and partly sunny skies that worked together with our cold front and a stronger upper-level wave that triggered 2 batches of strong to severe t-storms late in the afternoon and into the evening. While we did see a few tornado warnings in far eastern Ottawa County and Newton County, we didn’t receive any reports of funnel clouds or tornado touchdowns. We saw more severe t-storm warnings during the late afternoon and evening that brought some hail and wind reports our way. A few of the t-storms dropped some quarter-size hail around Baxter Springs, Quapaw and Carthage. On top of that, wind gusts pushing 60 mph led to some downed trees in parts of central and eastern Jasper County and some reported power outages in the city of Neosho and some customers in Newton & Vernon counties.
While we did have to put up with a severe threat with this storm system, at least a good number of us saw some more beneficial rain come out of this. While the area-wide average comes to just under half an inch, we did see some in SW MO and a few spots in NE OK see rain amounts push to an inch and 1.5″ before we dried out late Saturday night.
How do we look from here on out? The upper-level wave that triggered our late afternoon/evening round of t-storms is continuing to push off to our east.
While that wave is taking the better upper-level support for any rain chances out of here, it’s helping us out on the surface as well. It’s continuing to push the cold front to our east and allowing high pressure to our west to control our weather for today.
While we stay dry for the early morning hours, we’ll keep the wind going out of the west at 10-20 mph. The wind won’t be from any additional t-storms, but from the high pressure out west and the back side of our departed cold front. Don’t let that keep you up through the night. The wind will also continue to bring in cooler air to start the day out as lows bottom out around 40°.
The west wind will keep going throughout the day, but the mostly sunny skies will be the rule of thumb across the area. Plan on a chilly afternoon with highs topping out in the middle to upper 50s.
Heading into tonight and Monday morning, we’ll have the wind lighten up and switch out of the south at 5-10 mph. Before that wind can start bringing milder air back in, we’ll have mostly clear skies drop temperatures back into the upper 30s as we get ready to head back to work and school on Monday.
With mostly sunny skies and a southwest wind at 5-15 mph controlling our weather setup for Monday, we’ll have mild temperatures return as highs climb back into the lower 60s across the region.
For Monday and much of this week, the upper-level setup below pretty much sums up what our weather will look like. With a building upper-level ridge returning, we’ll have highs stay in the lower 60s again on Tuesday, middle 60s on Wednesday and back near 70° for Thursday and Friday. Not only that, this keeps any storm systems away and keeps us quiet and dry.
While most of the week stays quiet and mainly mild, look at the upper-level setup by Saturday. As the upper-level ridge starts to shift to our east, that will allow our next storm system to start working in from the west. We can start Saturday morning off on a dry note. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if that upper-level wave brings our next front in (along with rain chances) by late Saturday afternoon.
If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of the month and early December, Doug has your long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!
November 22nd-28th: It is Thanksgiving week. We’ll watch for a system with rain chances on Sunday as we stay mild. Rain chances start to clear out on Monday as temperatures turn cooler. We’ll stay quiet for Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances return for the holiday and holiday weekend. Looking to stay mainly cool for the rest of the week.
November 29th-December 5th: Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again by Friday and Saturday that could mix with some snow.
December 6th-12th: A mild start but a cold finish with rain chances on Tuesday. Turning much colder with rain and snow chances from Thursday through Saturday.