Good late Friday evening, everyone. We made it to another weekend as Mother Nature continues to shift us between a mild day and a chilly day. After we saw highs in the middle to upper 60s yesterday, we were at least able to get back into the lower to middle 50s after another cold start this morning.
It was nice to see temperatures rebound after our start in the upper 20s and lower 30s this morning even with the cloud cover that picked up during the course of the afternoon. The cloud cover is hinting at our next storm system already changing things up. The upper levels clearly show our increase in cloud cover and more moisture that will result in rain chances picking up is coming from the upper low working out of New Mexico. While we keep an eye on that low, we’re also watching another upper-level low working across southwestern Canada.
The upper low working across southwestern Canada will be responsible for bringing in another cold front by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Even though our last look had the front working across the Rockies, it will not waste any time in getting here.
Ahead of the front, the south wind will actually encourage temperatures to warm a bit during the night and into Saturday morning. While most of us will be sitting in the upper 40s to near 50° by the midnight hour, we’ll see temperatures climb to about 53° by sunrise. That’s quite a feat despite the cloud cover sticking with us and rain and t-storm chances picking up throughout the night.
Now, it won’t be raining all day on Saturday. With pockets of dry time and some peaks of the sun, that and the south wind at 15-25 mph (gusts near 35) will send us back into the lower 60s by the lunch hour.
Before we see the cold front quickly come in from the west starting late Saturday afternoon, we’ll have high temperatures push into the middle 60s in Joplin and southwest Missouri. There’s a chance that some middle to upper 60s will pop up in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma before the afternoon is all said and done.
While we’ll still keep an eye on rain and t-storm chances during the day, we’ll keep an eye on what the cold front wants to do as we get into Saturday evening. Depending on how much moisture is in place, how the winds look and how unstable parts of southwest Missouri can get, we’ll have a chance for some strong t-storms in this part of the area to start the evening out. I don’t see an immediate severe threat, but I will keep an eye on any of these t-storms and the possibly for some wind and hail to pop up.
Even with t-storm chances to start the evening out, the cold front will put an end to that as we get past 9 or 10 o’clock Saturday night. With these rain chances lining up, the area is fair game to pick up between a quarter of an inch to 3/4″ before we start drying out late Saturday night. If some pockets of moderate to heavy rain and t-storms can develop in some spots, we could see some amounts push near an inch.
Behind the cold front, we’ll see the skies turn mostly clear for Sunday morning. While it will be a nice start to the day to wrap up the weekend, it will be cold with morning lows dropping back between the upper 30s and 40°.
It will be chilly for Sunday afternoon, but we’ll have mostly sunny skies grace us once again and send afternoon highs back into the middle 50s.
While we turn chilly for Sunday, it won’t stay chilly for the week ahead of us. The upper-level setup below shows how the week will look overall. Note the building upper-level ridge across the Central Plains by Tuesday.
This setup will bring us back into the lower 60s on Monday. After we see middle 60s return by Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll start to push into the lower 70s by the end of the week before our next storm system wants to sneak in by next Saturday. If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of the month and early December, Doug has your long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Saturday!
Next Saturday: We’ll be mild for Saturday with a storm system bringing in rain chances back into the area.
November 22nd-28th: It is Thanksgiving week. We’ll watch for a system with rain chances on Sunday as we stay mild. The system stays around for Monday. Colder temperatures for Monday could have this system end as a potential rain/snow mix. We’ll stay quiet for Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances return for the holiday and holiday weekend. Looking to stay mainly cool for the rest of the week.
November 29th-December 5th: Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again by Friday and Saturday that could mix with some snow.
December 6th-12th: A mild start but a cold finish with rain chances on Tuesday. Turning much colder with rain and snow chances from Thursday through Saturday.