Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Props to Jacob and Chris for holding down the fort for the past few days. They actually had quite a bit of weather to talk about as our cold front took us from feeling like late September back to November. In addition to that, the front gave many areas rain amounts between a quarter and half an inch on Tuesday. Even a few spots managed to see rain amounts push up to 3/4″ before the rain cleared out. Looking back at temperatures, though, you can’t help but notice the big switch as the front rolled through. We saw morning highs on Tuesday before we dropped back into the 40s for the afternoon. Even though we started cold this morning, we did see temperatures rebound into the middle to upper 50s this afternoon.
With that cold front long gone, we saw high pressure pass by today to keep our skies mostly sunny and our breeze light out of the east and northeast. As the high passes into the Great Lakes, the returning southerly breeze bring mild air back in for our Thursday. However, we notice a cold front coming out of the Northern Plains.
Not only is another cold front on the way in from the northwest, the upper levels show a wave along the Canadian border that will send some upper-level energy our way for Thursday. While these two systems could bring in a random shower for Thursday, we’ll wait until the upper low off the California Coast starts to bring better rain chances our way by the weekend.
For the rest of the night and into our Thursday morning, we’ll see our cool temperatures turn cold once again. Fortunately, the wind will shift out of the southeast and keep us from turning too cold as our morning gets started. Nonetheless, mostly clear skies and a light breeze means we’ll bundle up for the morning as lows drop back into the middle to upper 30s..
After another cold start, we’ll see our cold front and upper-level wave bring partly sunny skies back in for Thursday afternoon. While enough moisture could be in place for a random shower to try and pop up, I expect the vast majority of the area to stay dry. Despite clouds on the way, we’ll turn mild for our Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s.
Those two systems will move on and leave us mostly clear and cold for our Friday morning. With some clearing and a northeast breeze at 5-10, we’ll drop to about 30° in Joplin for Friday morning. Areas along and south of I-44 should drop into the lower 30s while our northern areas could drop back into the upper 20s.
The next upper-level wave coming through the Western US and the Southwest will start sending more energy, lift and moisture our way. We’ll notice the arrival of that trio with skies turning mostly cloudy on Friday and some scattered rain and t-storm chances very late in the day. This will keep temperatures chilly with highs in the lower to middle 50s as the weekend gets going.
This wave will keep rain and t-storms chances around from Friday evening into our Saturday. None of our expected t-storm chances will be severe, but we’ll have some wet times for our weekend before the system clears out on Sunday.
In terms of expected rainfall, indications show we could see total rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to 3/4″ of an inch on average. If we do see some t-storms with some moderate or heavier pockets of rain, some spots could push their rain totals close to an inch before we start drying out by Sunday morning.
At least we can salvage a completely dry Sunday to wrap up the coming weekend. With that upper low on the move, we’ll stay on the chilly side of the jet underneath mostly sunny skies. As for temperatures, we’ll start cool in the middle 40s before highs climb only into the middle 50s.
That chilly trend on Sunday will continue for Monday before we see another shift in the upper-level setup. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, we’ll begin to see an upper-level ridge develop out of Mexico and push the jet back to the north.
This northward shift in the jet will send mild air back our way as highs will climb back into the lower 60s by the middle of next week under partly to mostly sunny skies. If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of the month and early December, Doug has your long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Next Thursday-Saturday: Staying dry for Thursday and Friday while we watch for a potential system by the weekend. Temperatures expected to turn chilly once again.
November 22nd-28th: It is Thanksgiving week. The first half of the week looks mild and dry. However, rain chances for the holiday and the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures working in.
November 29th-December 5th: Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again by Friday and Saturday that could mix with some snow.
December 6th-12th: A mild start but a cold finish with rain chances on Tuesday. Turning much colder with rain and snow chances from Thursday through Saturday.