Good early Monday morning, everyone. Another weekend has come and gone with the weather staying quiet and warmer than normal for early November standards. Normally, we should have our highs settling down into the lower to middle 60s. The past 2 days have been anything but normal as far as temperatures go. After seeing highs back in the middle 70s on Saturday, we had highs push back into the upper 70s for Sunday after a chilly start in the morning.
We can squeeze out one more warm day before we see fall return to the area this week. The surface setup below easily explains why we’ll stay warm to start the new work/school week out and how we’ll cool back down for the rest of the week. Our main focus continues to be the cold front working across the Central Plains. Until it gets here, we’ll stay ahead of the front with a good south breeze to keep us warm.
The front will be on its way as the pair of upper-level lows continue to work across the Rocky Mountains and into the Central Plains. Once we get on the backside of the front and get the jet stream to push to our southeast, that’s when it will start to feel like fall again.
As for the start of our new work/school week, the south wind ahead of the cold front will continue to keep us mild into Monday morning. With the wind pulling in some additional moisture, we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies set to start our day. While it’s not out of the question that a random shower could pop up in a spot or two, the vast majority of us will stay dry with lows in the middle 60s.
The day may start mostly cloudy, but we’re expecting partly sunny skies to temporarily return for the afternoon. Given that and our south breeze at 10-20 mph (gusts near 30 mph at times), we’ll have another warm afternoon lined up with highs back in the upper 70s.
While we can squeak through our Monday on a dry note, let’s turn our attention to early Tuesday morning. Starting at midnight, we’ll have our highs for the day in the upper 60s across the region. If you look out into central Kansas, you can see the south wind switching to the north along with developing rain and t-storms we’re expecting to head our way. That is the cold front ready to work in.
Through early Tuesday morning and into the AM drive, we’ll have the front work through the area to bring in scattered rain and t-storms to start the day. By the time most of us finish the drive to work and the kids get back to school, areas ahead of the front will still be in the middle to upper 60s while areas behind the front will start to drop back into the 50s.
Even though the cold front will push out all of our t-storm chances and some of the cloud cover for Tuesday afternoon, fall will definitely make its return as everyone drops back and holds in the lower to middle 50s for Tuesday afternoon.
In terms of expected rainfall, we aren’t expecting any heavy amounts to accumulate as the front pushes through. On average, we’ll see rain amounts no more than half an inch in most spots.
While we stay dry for Veterans Day, the pair of upper-level lows will push the jet back to our southeast. Even with mostly sunny skies, we’ll have to start cold in the middle 30s before we see highs back around 60° for Wednesday afternoon.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll keep quiet for Thursday before another wave out west starts to roll in. We’ll see this bring mostly cloudy skies and rain chances back in for Friday and Saturday as we stay mild.
If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of November and early December, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great start to the week!
Next Monday-Saturday: Staying dry as we turn cooler for Monday. Another system on Tuesday and Wednesday with some rain chances. Cool and dry the rest of the week.
November 22nd-28th: It is Thanksgiving week. The first half of the week looks mild and dry. However, rain chances for the holiday and the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures working in.
November 29th-December 5th: Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again by Friday and Saturday that could mix with some snow.
December 6th-12th: A mild start but a cold finish with rain chances on Tuesday. Turning much colder with rain and snow chances from Thursday through Saturday.