Good Sunday evening, everyone. For those that enjoy setting the clocks back at this time of year, I hope you savored the extra hour of sleep this morning. Even with us getting used to seeing the sun rise and set earlier, we did manage to warm up across the area today. We did see a difference in temperatures between yesterday and today after a cold front slipped through. Instead of highs in the 60s, we saw highs in the middle to upper 50s today after we started in the upper 30s & lower 40s this morning.
The surface setup below has high pressure passing just to the north of the region behind our cold front that’s already jetting into the Atlantic. With high pressure on top of us tonight, it’ll keep us quiet and cold with clear skies and a light breeze in place. Once it scoots off to the east, the south wind will come back into play and send mild air back in for our Monday.
The upper-level setup is undergoing another change to help bring the mild air back in. The upper low that brought the front through is now working across the Great Lakes and into New England. The upper-level ridge now centered across the Texas-Mexico border will take advantage of the low’s departure and shift the ridge back into the Central and Southern Plains. While we won’t be directly under the ridge for Monday, this shift will bring in milder air back into our area.
Before we can get the milder air back in, we have to get past a cold night that’s already underway and a cold start to our Monday morning. Even with our breeze turning out of the south by the AM drive, the clear skies through the night will allow temperatures to drop near 34° in Joplin. Outlying areas will likely drop back into the lower 30s before sunrise.
Once we get past our cold start to the day, we’ll have the south and southwest wind pick up between 5 & 15 mph underneath sunny skies for the day. We’ll have temperatures quickly warming through the morning to about 56° by lunch time. For the afternoon, there may be shorter daylight to work with. Still, we’re expecting highs to top out around 60° across much of the area. It’s certainly possible for some middle 60s to pop up in our western areas.
For Election Day Tuesday, we’ll keep quiet under partly to mostly sunny skies. After we start cool in the morning with lows in the middle 40s, we’re expecting highs to bounce back near 70° for the afternoon. By Wednesday, we’ll have a quick upper-level low work in from the west. You can see below that the wave won’t have too much in the way of moisture to work with. While we’ll expect mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday, we’ll stay dry as this wave passes through.
After the quick wave clears out, we’ll have the upper-level ridge build back in for Thursday and to start the weekend out. This will keep morning lows in the lower 50s and highs in the lower 70s across the region.
You can tell that most of this week won’t be a very active weather week. This was to be expected in this part of Doug’s pattern and it’ll stay that way with partly sunny skies and mild temperatures for Saturday. Sticking with his pattern, though, you’ll see what’s lining up for the end of the weekend and early next week below.
One upper-level low developing out west will force a wave of energy and moisture our way on Sunday. That will bring in a chance for some t-storms while we stay mild for Sunday. The trailing upper-level low will be ready to send a frontal system our way for early next week with rain chances on the way and a cool down right behind it. If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of November and how we’ll start December, Doug has your long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
Next Monday-Saturday: Rain chances for Monday and into Tuesday. With this system we will cool down for the rest of the week. Rain chances back in Wednesday through Saturday. Turning colder by the weekend.
November 15th-21st: Mainly a cold to chilly week and mainly dry. Slight rain chances on Thursday.
November 22nd-28th: Back to mild for Thanksgiving week. However, rain chances Wednesday through Saturday
November 29th-December 5th: Up and down temperatures all week with two storms systems. Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again, rain chances back in for the weekend.