Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Our storm system certainly has dominated the weather headlines across the area so far this week. Fortunately, its time to exit is rapidly approaching as we head into Thursday. For today, we stuck with cloud cover across the area while the periods of rain stuck around as well. Considering that we’re in a drought, it’s generally a good thing that we’re seeing rain amounts between Monday and this evening averaging 2.1″ across the area. The heavier rainfall has been confined to areas in SW MO south of I-44 where estimates suggest rain amounts pushing 3 to 5 inches.
Another good thing with this system at this stage of the game is the temperatures. For the past few days, temperatures were around or just above freezing allowing our rain chances to mix in with mainly some freezing rain and sleet. Even though it was still cool today, we were able to get out of the 30s and back into the 40s for today.
The bad things about this system is that it’s leaving much of the area with flood watches expiring as late as 7 o’clock Thursday evening. That’s because even though the system is on the move, it’ll hold on for the night and Thursday morning before it moves on. We can see two parts to this overall system on this late Wednesday evening. At the surface, we note a weakening Hurricane Zeta working across Mississippi and into southern Alabama. That’s going to be steered to the northeast ahead of a surface cold front. Meanwhile, the parent low with this system is still keeping moisture in place on top of us.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the main storm system that sent wave after wave of energy and moisture our way this week is finally starting to move along. We note the main spin of the system passing over northern Texas and southern/western Oklahoma.
While it’s nice to know that both components of this system are moving east, it’ll still be around through the overnight and into Monday morning. While temperatures have held fairly steady, the continuing clouds, rain and the north breeze at 10-15 mph, we’ll have temperatures drop a bit into the lower 40s by the time the Thursday AM drive gets underway.
Our setup starts to improve as we approach the lunch hour on Thursday. At the start of the afternoon, we’ll stay mostly cloudy with temperatures pushing close to 43 degrees. Note the rain, though. The rain on the back side of this system will start clearing out as the afternoon gets underway.
While we expect skies to stay mostly cloudy with temperatures staying in the middle 40s for highs, the rain will be gone as the system works over the Mississippi River.
Until we dry out on Thursday afternoon, much of the area is fair game to see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through the night and through Thursday morning. This is why the flood watches remain in effect into Thursday evening at the latest. As always, be careful if you have to be on the road. If you encounter flooded roads or if you’re not sure how deep any potential water is that’s covering the road… Turn around. Don’t drown.
With skies turning partly cloudy for Thursday evening and into Friday morning, that will allow temperatures to turn cold as the weekend kicks off. With temperatures ranging between the upper 20s and lower 30s, we could have a possible freeze for parts of the area. At the very least, we’ll have a frosty start to our Friday.
Once we get past our cold Friday morning, the southwesterly breeze returns as we stay partly sunny for the rest of the day. That gets us back into fall with temperatures looking to top out in the upper 50s across the region.
We’ll stay dry for the weekend, including Halloween on Saturday. With a south wind under partly sunny skies, we’ll see highs top out in the lower to middle 60s for the afternoon before we turn chilly for Halloween night. Even though we’ll stay dry for Sunday, note what the upper levels are trying to show as we head into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
That upper-level wave will send a cold front through to wrap up the upcoming weekend. While we don’t anticipate any rain with this front, it will drop us back to 40 degrees for Sunday morning and highs only topping out in the middle 50s. We’ll stay dry and mild for early next week before we see some possible rain chances by the end of next week. Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast out through early December down below.
Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Next Thursday-Saturday: Mild on Thursday and cooler for Friday with rain chances for both days. Staying dry for Saturday.
November 8th-14th: A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Staying cool into the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning. Rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances by Saturday.
November 15th-21st: Mainly a cold to chilly week and mainly dry. Slight rain chances on Thursday.
November 22nd-28th: Back to mild for Thanksgiving week. However, rain chances Wednesday through Saturday
November 29th-December 5th: Up and down temperatures all week with two storms systems. Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again, rain chances back in for the weekend.