Good Sunday evening, everyone. It was another day where mostly cloudy skies were the rule of thumb as we wrapped up the weekend. Even though we stayed dry, the cloud cover wouldn’t allow temperatures to warm up very much throughout the day. After we saw lows in the lower to middle 40s at Joplin Regional this morning, we only made it back into the upper 40s this afternoon.
Even though we stayed quiet underneath mostly cloudy skies today, the clouds are hinting at our next storm system on the way in. Before it gets here, we notice the winter weather advisories for the counties in blue that’ll be in effect between early Monday morning and 9 AM Tuesday.
The surface map down below is showing one component of the storm system coming into place. Even though the cold front will position itself to our southwest to start the week, it and an area of high pressure in northeast Wyoming is bringing in colder air from the north.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the main driver to this storm system is the upper-level low sitting over the state of Utah. As it slowly starts working to the east, it’ll start sending energy, lift and moisture our way to bring rain chances and wintry weather chances back into the area.
While we start the overnight hours on a quiet note under cloudy skies, we’ll start to see some showers develop across parts of southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma by 3 or 4 AM. Early highs will be in the lower 40s before we drop into the middle to upper 30s by 7 AM Monday. As we get closer to sunrise and the start of the AM drive to work and school, the better inflow of moisture will work in and bring rain chances for most of the area. Areas to the northwest of Parsons, Pittsburg and Nevada will have a better shot of seeing some freezing rain, sleet and snow mix in.
Throughout the course of our Monday, we’ll have temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 30s. That will keep areas to the northwest of Nevada, Pittsburg and Parsons in a better spot to see rain mixing in with freezing rain and snow at times. Everyone else can expect periods of rain to continue throughout the day.
Through Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, we’ll back off on the coverage of rain and wintry weather across the area. Still, we’ll hold onto scattered rain and a scattered mix of snow, freezing rain and rain in our northwestern counties as temperatures bottom out mainly in the lower 30s.
By the start of the Tuesday AM drive, another wave of moisture will work in and give us a mix of rain and freezing rain for the rest of the morning. The best chances for any freezing rain will be to the northwest of Lamar, Joplin, Columbus and Vinita. Even with the clouds sticking with us, we’ll have temperatures back above freezing across the area leaving us with rain chances for Tuesday afternoon. It’ll still be a cold day with highs in the upper 30s.
With a wintry mix possible between Monday AM and Tuesday AM in our northwestern counties, we are expecting some light accumulations on mainly elevated surfaces. While we’re keeping any projected ice/sleet amounts under a quarter of an inch (maybe a tenth or .15″ at worst), be mindful if some elevated roadways or bridges become slick.
As far as potential snow goes, the better chance for 1 to 2 inches of snow will be for areas northwest of Chanute, Fredonia and Uniontown. While some snow may clip areas close to Parsons, Nevada and Pittsburg, any potential snow amounts in the lighter blue shouldn’t get to more than a dusting or a quarter of an inch.
While any wintry weather chances leave the area after Tuesday morning, this system isn’t quite finished with us. With the front planning on lifting out of the south for Wednesday, this will keep periods of rain in the forecast. Despite that, we should see high temperatures return to the lower 50s as some warmer air starts to work back in.
For Thursday, the trailing low with this system will be passing to our south and southeast. While this still leaves us with some rain chances in the morning, we’ll have this system clear out by the afternoon. As it does, the rain chances will follow suit while we remain with mostly cloudy skies.
As far as rain totals are looking, we still have a chance to pick up anywhere between 2 and 4 inches of rain with this system. While this may not quite be the big drought buster we need, this is encouraging news since we need any rain that we can get.
After this system clears out, we’ll stay partly sunny, dry and chilly for Friday with highs bouncing back into the upper 50s. Thankfully, Halloween is looking dry and mostly sunny before we roll back the clock on Sunday. Doug has your long range forecast covering the month of November and the first few weeks of December down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
Next Monday-Saturday: A bit cooler with rain chances on Monday. Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with rain chances back in on Friday and Saturday.
November 8th-14th: A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Staying cool into the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning. Rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances by Saturday.
November 15th-21st: Mainly a cold to chilly week and mainly dry. Slight rain chances on Thursday.
November 22nd-28th: Back to mild for Thanksgiving week. However, rain chances Wednesday through Saturday
November 29th-December 5th: Up and down temperatures all week with two storms systems. Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again, rain chances back in for the weekend.
December 6th-12th: A cool start to the week, but warming up the middle of the week with rain chances. Much colder temperatures late in the week and into the weekend with most likely wintry weather chances