Good Wednesday evening, everyone. As expected, we had a warm Wednesday with temperatures climbing about 10 to 15 degrees warmer across the area compared to yesterday’s highs in the lower to middle 70s. Even though we had highs bounce into the middle 80s after a chilly start this morning, the humidity stayed low. That explains why we had temperatures jump up so much again and why it didn’t feel so miserable like we usually expect when temperatures get this warm.
With the dry air still in place and cooler air filtering back in, we’ll start Thursday off on a cool note before we turn mild for the afternoon ahead of us.
Breaking down our weather setup, the surface map below shows the northerly and northwesterly wind kicking back in behind our cold front as it continues to move to our southeast.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the northwest flow of the jet stream continues. We’ll see this flow send another upper-level wave and a front our way by the weekend. In the meantime, the upper low over eastern Canada is gaining strength once again and will push the core jet back to our south. That will send us back into mild territory for Thursday.
With the dry air still in place, we’ll turn cool for Thursday morning. By sunrise, everyone will start out with lows in the upper 40s.
Even though we’ll warm up quite a bit after our cool start on Thursday morning, temperatures with a north breeze at 10-20 mph will leave us with highs for Thursday afternoon 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today. It’ll still be a nice afternoon with mostly sunny skies and highs pushing into the upper 60s across much of the area.
Now, Thursday night and Friday morning is looking a little interesting. Even though we’ll stay quiet with mostly clear skies, the breeze will lighten up with our dry air still in place. While areas close to Joplin may bottom out around 40 for Friday morning, there’s a chance for some spots in our northern counties to slip back into the middle to upper 30s. With the possibility of a patchy frost for some Friday morning, we’ll continue to keep an eye on that setup for you.
After we get past our cool/cold start to Friday morning, we’ll have no problem warming back up into the middle to upper 60s under partly to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon.
When we get into Saturday morning, we’ll have cloud cover and rain chances picking up when an upper-level wave pushes another front with better moisture into the area.
The rain and possible t-storm chances will stick with us mainly for Saturday morning before we see the rain start to taper off as we start the afternoon. While we certainly need the rain, we’re not looking at a soaking rain heading our way. Any accumulating rain parts of the area will see on Saturday will stay under half an inch.
Once we get past Saturday morning and into Saturday afternoon, the mostly cloudy skies will stick with us for the rest of the day. While the upper-level wave does push the rain chances off to the east for the rest of Saturday, this will keep highs in the upper 60s across our area.
By Sunday, the wave is gone and we’ll be back to partly sunny skies to wrap up the weekend. After a chilly start near 50 on Sunday morning, we’ll be able to see highs bounce back into the lower to middle 70s. The new work/school week will have the jet working back to our north. Under partly sunny skies, we’ll have highs bounce back near 80 after we start in the lower 50s for the morning.
It looks as though this warm spell will hold on as we stay mainly quiet for much of next week. If you’re curious as to how much of October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Next Thursday-Saturday: Staying warm with rain chances returning for Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.