Good early Wednesday morning, everyone. We continued our warming trend yesterday after we started the day on quite a cool note. Unlike Monday where we had lows around 50° and highs in the lower 70s, we started on a cool note with lower 40s for Tuesday morning with quite a bit of dry air still in place. That same air mass with mostly sunny skies got us into the lower to middle 70s across much of the area for the afternoon.
After we start this morning out on a chilly note, we’ll have a warm afternoon to enjoy before Mother Nature sends us back into the fall season very soon.
Breaking down our weather setup, the jet stream continues to sit just to our southwest. Even though we warmed up quite a bit on Tuesday, this kept temperatures below our normal highs in the upper 70s. One wave that worked over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio brought a few showers well to the east of the region around the St. Louis area today. The track of that upper low kept any cloud cover away yesterday. However, look up near Winnipeg in southern Canada. That’s another upper-level wave that’ll work toward the southeast.
That upper wave will help push our next cold front out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest toward us as we work through the day ahead of us.
What’s nice about the approaching front is that we saw our wind switch from the west yesterday evening back out of the southwest as we started the overnight. That will keep temperatures out of the 40s. It will still be a chilly start to the morning with lows in the lower 50s under mostly clear skies.
Once we get into the late morning hours and to start the afternoon, that’s when the cold front will work in from the north. Even as it starts passing through, we’ll still have a dry air mass in place. Under mostly sunny skies, the dry air mass will still allow temperatures to climb into the middle 70s at lunch time.
Even with the front passing through and shifting our wind out of the northwest for the afternoon, it won’t be bringing in any cooler air right away. We should be able to squeeze out a warm afternoon with highs pushing into the lower 80s.
The cooler air starts working in as we work through the evening and into Thursday morning. After we see that bring lows down into the upper 40s for Thursday morning, we’ll jump back into the middle to upper 60s for afternoon highs.
Temperatures for Thursday night and Friday morning will be interesting to watch. With dry air still in place and cooler air still working in, we have a chance to see overnight lows drop into the upper 30s. That could bring our first instance of patchy frost for the fall season our way. Those with green thumbs will want to pay attention and be ready to cover up or move in any sensitive plants.
After our potentially cold start for Friday morning, partly sunny skies won’t stop us from warming back up into the middle 60s for Friday afternoon. While we start the weekend off on a quiet note, we’ll be watching for another upper-level wave to come out of southern Canada.
That wave will also bring another front our way as we work into Saturday. This time, not only will this front and upper wave have moisture to bring mostly cloudy skies back in for Saturday. It will also give us a chance for some scattered showers and t-storms that could last into early Sunday morning.
While the rain chances still lining up for Saturday and early Sunday morning won’t necessarily take us out of the drought that we’re still facing, we’ll still take any rain amounts that can come our way. We have a shot to see rain amounts range between a tenth of an inch and half an inch.
Once that system clears out, we’ll start next week off on a mild note before we try to trend warmer by the middle of next week. If you’re curious as to how much of October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
Next Wednesday-Saturday: Staying mild to warm with rain chances returning for Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.