Good late Wednesday evening, everyone. On the heels of our cloudy (and rainy for some) start to the fall season yesterday, we saw a vast improvement in our weather setup across the area today. Departing tropical moisture turned our mostly cloudy start this morning into a mostly sunny afternoon across a good portion of the area. That definitely had an impact on our temperatures compared to yesterday. Instead of highs around 70°, we saw highs climb near 80° after we started around 60° this morning.
We are looking at a quiet Thursday ahead of us as we inch closer to the first weekend of the fall season. Even with some possible fog for some spots during the overnight and into Thursday morning, we’ll go from another chilly start in the morning to highs back in the upper 70s for the afternoon.
The surface setup below shows the remnants of Tropical Depression Beta continuing to work across the Deep South with rain and t-storms stretching up into the Tennessee Valley. While we don’t have any immediate systems in our region, we also note a cold front to our north stretching across the Great Lakes and into the Northern Plains. While that front stays to our north, it’s the cold front coming into the Pacific Northwest that I’m watching. That’s one of two fronts on the way for next week that will start to change things up for our first full week of fall.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low that developed on top of us yesterday is working off to the east. As it does, it’s not only pulling the tropical moisture away from the region. It will also allow the warm side of the jet to start returning to keep us warm heading into the weekend.
For the overnight and into Thursday morning, we’ll stay quiet under mostly clear skies with a light southeast breeze. As temperatures drop into the middle 50s by sunrise, it will be another chilly start across the area. However, these temperatures will be near the dew point as we get closer to sunrise and the start of the morning drive. That could lead to some areas of fog as our day gets started.
Any areas of fog around to start the day will burn off as the morning rolls along. With mostly sunny skies waiting for us once again under the still light south and southeast breeze, we’ll see temperatures eager to warm back up again. We’ll be pushing into the lower to middle 70s by the start of the afternoon.
With mostly sunny skies staying around and working together with a relatively dry air mass, we’ll have afternoon highs push back into the upper 70s across the area. It is possible for a few spots to top out at the 80° mark before the afternoon is all said and done.
Even though we’ll stay quiet for Thursday evening and Friday morning, we’ll turn chilly again under mostly clear skies. While it may be possible that a few areas of patchy fog could be possible in parts of southwest Missouri and around Stockton Lake, everyone will have mostly clear skies as we drop into the upper 50s.
Like our Thursday, our Friday will stay nice and quiet under mostly sunny skies. We’ll also trend a little warmer with afternoon highs climbing into the middle 80s across the area.
We’ll have that jump in temperatures on Friday courtesy of an upper-level ridge sneaking in as the weekend begins on the map below. The ridge may slide to the east on Saturday, but we’ll remain on the warm side of the jet for Saturday. That will keep skies mostly sunny and highs in the middle 80s once again.
For Sunday, the cold front that’s sitting in the Pacific Northwest will start working into the area. This may have just enough moisture for a random shower or two Sunday afternoon, but this will mainly bring partly sunny skies in and nudge highs back down into the lower 80s.
Behind the first cold front, we’ll keep quiet for Monday with partly sunny skies and highs around 80°. Heading into Tuesday morning, another cold front will work in from the northwest. While that front depicted below could bring in some isolated t-storms for Tuesday morning, this is a front that will have some punch to it with cooler air behind it. After we start in the lower 60s for Tuesday morning, we’ll only top out in the middle 70s for Tuesday afternoon.
Once we’re behind that second front on Wednesday, we’ll start cool with lows in the upper 40s and only rebound into the lower to middle 60s across the area. Even though we’ll try to trend a little warmer by next weekend, we’ll plan on staying fairly mild for the rest of the week. If you’re curious as to how we’ll wrap up September and how October is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Next Wednesday-Saturday: We’ll stay dry and mild through the rest of the week. Even though we’ll trend a little warmer by the weekend, we’ll stay mainly mild.
October 4th-10th: Mainly a mild and calm week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.
October 11th-18th: A mild start but a cool end of the week. Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
October 19th-25th: Mainly a mild week with cooler temperatures by the weekend. Rain chances on Monday, then again Thursday through Friday.