Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Stop us if you have heard this before. After we had a mild start this morning, our partly to mostly sunny skies sent us back into the early summer heat once again. It’s a familiar song and dance that Mother Nature has been more than eager to keep playing. At times yesterday, we had some random t-storms pop up to give some spots a bit of a break in the warmth. That was the case in Joplin the other day with a storm or two dancing through the city. Today, we had highs right back near 90° with our partly sunny skies staying quiet.
For the rest of the night, we’ll continue to see temperatures turn mild with lows dropping back into the upper 60s. We’ll see another repeat of today set for tomorrow. After sunrise, temperatures will be eager to warm back into the middle 80s by lunchtime and back to 90° for Thursday afternoon.
The main feature at the surface we’re watching as we work through Thursday and as we head into the weekend is the cold front stretching from the Northern Plains and back into the Southwest. The south wind ahead of the front is helping to fuel some strong to severe t-storms in parts of the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota for the late night hours.
That front is finally ready to start heading our way as the upper-level low in the west is ready to move along as well. Before that starts to impact our weather, we’re still on the warm side of the jet. With some influence from the upper-level low off to the east, it’ll try to send some energy our way one more time on Thursday before it starts to lift off to the northeast.
Let’s hit the repeat button once again for Thursday. Some spots will see some passing cloud cover through the night and into Thursday morning. Thankfully, we’ll start mild once again as lows drop back into the upper 60s.
After sunrise, we’ll waste no time warming up as our southerly breeze picks up to 5-15 mph at lunchtime. Even with a few gusts near 20 mph, that will send us back into the middle 80s to start the afternoon out.
Like most of the afternoons this week, we’ll have another hot afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies with highs back to 90°. With the heat, humidity and another chance for upper-level energy to swing by from the east, we won’t rule out a random t-storm for the afternoon. Otherwise, the vast majority of the area will stay dry.
To start Thursday evening and early Thursday night out, we’ll be warm with most areas staying dry. However, note the t-storms that’ll develop across central and northeastern Kansas. Those t-storms will form ahead of the cold front ready to make an appearance in our area.
There is a chance that some of those showers and t-storms will try to sneak into our northwestern counties as our Friday morning gets underway. If that activity can indeed hold together, we shouldn’t see anything too strong or severe out of that. Whether you stay dry or see some rain and t-storms in the morning, it will be another mild start for Friday with lows in the lower 70s.
The front will continue to set up across southeastern Kansas and into northwestern Missouri as we head into Friday afternoon. As we warm back up for Friday afternoon, the warmth and humidity will fire off scattered t-storms for the afternoon. While the storms don’t plan on turning severe, we could see these t-storms form into a complex with some gusty wind and heavy rain. This is a setup we’ll continue to watch as we work through the day.
While the front doesn’t want to completely push through the area, it’ll stick with us as we work through the rest of the weekend. Couple that with the upper low sending in some more shortwaves along the jet stream, we’ll hold onto scattered t-storm chances for Saturday. Keep in mind that it won’t be raining all day Saturday. With the dry time we’ll get, we’ll have highs staying warm but out of the heat with temperatures in the upper 80s.
With another shortwave riding in for Sunday and the front still around, we’ll have a dry start to Father’s Day before we warm back up with some scattered t-storms for the afternoon.
Before the front fades away, it’ll work with another shortwave riding along the northwest flow of the jet stream Once again, we’ll have highs back in the upper 80s for a warm Monday with t-storms ready to pop up again for the afternoon.
Tuesday could serve as a break in the rain chances with mostly sunny skies and highs staying in the upper 80s. By the middle of next week, we’ll start to sneak back under the warm side of the jet. While the northwest flow wants to bring another shortwave with some pop-up t-storms by next Wednesday, we’ll start to see highs back near 90°. If you’re curious about how the rest of June and July is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Long range forecast through July:
Next Thursday – Saturday: Hot temperatures on Thursday followed by a cooler Friday and Saturday. We will have chances for isolated t-storms just about each and every day.
June 28th-July 4th: Warm through the first half of the week with hotter temperatures the second half of the week. I don’t see extreme heat working in. We’re expecting the typical late June/early July heat to return. Thunderstorms chances Monday through Wednesday, then again by the weekend which is the 4th. Side note, watching the tropics this week in the gulf.
July 5th-11th: A warm start to the week with a hot finish. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Saturday. Just afternoon pop up storms.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.