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Good Friday evening, everyone. Another June weekend is underway and we’ve been able to start it off on a mostly quiet note. During the early morning hours, we actually had a quick upper-level wave sneak in around the building upper-level ridge. While that did bring in cloud cover to start the day, it actually fired up some isolated showers and a few t-storms in our far western counties early this morning. Fortunately, those didn’t last for very long as dry air near the surface eventually made them disappear. Even with the cloud cover this morning, we saw skies brighten up for the afternoon and send us into the upper 80s this afternoon.
Our temperatures have finally cooled back into mild territory across the area and we’ll hold onto that as we head into Saturday morning. Once we get past sunrise, though, mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day will quickly get to work and warm us up once again. With a few changes in our weather setup for the weekend, we’ll have highs on Saturday pushing near 90°.
Let’s break down the few changes we have that will dictate our weather for the rest of the weekend. At the surface, the decaying high pressure across Arkansas will continue to provide a southerly breeze through the night and into Saturday. The cold front stretching from eastern Canada and across the northern parts of the United States will put the brakes on a little earlier than expected. We’re expecting the cold front to only work as far south as northeastern Missouri for Saturday and Sunday.
At the jet stream level, the upper-level ridge has grown a little stronger and wants to nudge a little more to the northeast. That upper-level ridge will keep us dry for the rest of the weekend, but it will also keep us hot.
There is a chance for some cloud cover to develop during the overnight out to the west and work in. Even if that unfolds, we’ll keep quiet for your Saturday morning as temperatures drop back into the middle to upper 60s.
With mostly sunny skies set for the rest of the day and a light south breeze at 5-10 mph, that will certainly send us back into hot territory as highs top out at or around 90° across the area.
Sunday may have some partly sunny skies during the day, but the upper level ridge will be in control to keep us quiet, dry and hot with highs back in the lower 90s. You can see that the jet stream setup for Sunday wants an upper-level low to get cut off from the main jet stream on Sunday. That could play a role in our forecast at times next week.
The new work week begins with the upper ridge staying in control with highs in the lower 90s under partly sunny skies for Monday. By Tuesday, indications show the upper low in the east wanting to push the ridge back to the west a little bit. That setup could bring some energy from the upper low our way and spawn a few t-storms for Tuesday afternoon. Even with the slim rain chances on Tuesday, we’ll stay a bit on the hot side with highs around 90°. This setup will also apply for your Wednesday.
By Thursday, we could see an interesting change in our setup. The upper level ridge wants to start shifting back toward the southwest. With that possibility on the table, we’ll see the upper low to our east and another system to the north try to start sending a frontal system our way. That could result in some isolated t-storms for Thursday, but we’ll stay a bit hot with highs in the lower 90s.
By Friday, we could see the frontal system edge closer to the region and give us some scattered t-storms for Friday. Even though the rain chances may pick up some on Friday, we’ll still be close enough to the upper-level ridge so that temperatures will stay in the lower 90s for Friday. For next weekend, this storm system will take some persuading to move along. We’ll hold onto some t-storm chances for the rest of next weekend with potentially a bit of a drop in temperatures by the following week.
If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of June and July is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Saturday!
Nick
Long range forecast through July:
Next Saturday: Hot with a chance for some isolated to scattered t-storms.
June 21st-27th: A hot start then a hair cooler into the middle of the week. Hot temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, then cooler on Friday and Saturday. We will have a chances for an isolated storms just about each and every day.
June 28th-July 4th: Warm through the first half of the week with hotter temperatures the second half of the week. I don’t see extreme heat, just typical late June early July. Thunderstorms chances Monday through Wednesday, then again by the weekend which is the 4th. Side note, watching the tropics this week in the gulf.
July 5th-11th: A warm start to the week with a hot finish. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Saturday. Just afternoon pop up storms.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.
