Good Monday morning, everyone. A new work week is getting underway with our hot and humid weekend in the rear-view mirror. That early taste of summer was brought to us by an upper level ridge that also kept away any t-storm chances for the past few days.
Even though we’ll stay on the warm side of the jet for today, the upper level ridge is starting to weaken and shift off to the east. With that taking place upstairs, that will allow two systems to start heading our way. One system we’re watching is a cold front off to our northwest. It, along with the dryline and the warm front, helped spawn some severe weather across parts of Nebraska, the Dakotas and Minnesota Sunday afternoon and last night.
Before that front works in, though, another system will pass on by first. That system goes by the name of Cristobal and the tropical storm finally made landfall this evening in southeastern Louisiana. The 10 PM Advisory from last night had Cristobal as a weaker tropical storm with wind speeds at 45 mph and moving north-northwest at 10 mph.
Ahead of its approach by late today and Tuesday, flash flood watches have gone into effect for much of Arkansas and much of central Missouri. The slight change in its track wants to keep much of the heavy rain out of the area, but Lawrence, Barry and Dade counties in southwest Missouri are being included in the watch until 10 AM Tuesday.
Even with these two systems on the way, we’ll keep quiet to start our Monday morning out. With some passing clouds in a few spots, everyone is starting mild and a bit muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s.
The rising sun through the morning will send us into the middle 80s by lunchtime before we see some more partly sunny skies for the afternoon. The clouds will be ahead of Cristobal as it starts to work through the state of Arkansas. If you see more partly sunny skies for the afternoon, you’ll have highs in the upper 80s. If you hop over into Kansas and Oklahoma with mostly sunny skies more prominent, you’ll have a shot of hitting 90° for the afternoon. A stray t-storm can’t be ruled out for our far southeast counties, but most of the rain and t-storms during the day will stay in Arkansas.
Once we get into this evening and tonight, that’s when Cristobal will start to make its move into our parts of Arkansas and Missouri. With the change in its track wanting to take the center of circulation close to West Plains in south central Missouri, the majority of the heavy rain threat will stay in the Missouri Ozarks. For our area, it’s looking like our Missouri counties will be clipped by some heavy rain and t-storms on the backside of Cristobal.
The circulation will start to lift up into central Missouri by sunrise Tuesday morning. As it does, it’ll take those rain chances out of the picture and leave us with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures starting out around 70°.
With partly sunny skies looking likely for Tuesday afternoon ahead of our next cold front, it’ll work together with a south wind at 10-20 mph and push highs back into the upper 80s. If the cold front can pull in some moisture to take away any dry air on the backside of Cristobal and overcome some warm temperatures aloft, we’ll have to watch for scattered t-storms by Tuesday afternoon.
If any scattered t-storms can develop, they’ll be with us for Tuesday evening before the system starts to move out early Wednesday morning.
As far as rain totals go from today through early Wednesday morning, most of the rainfall will depend on how Cristobal will track. There could still be minor shifts in the track that could impact who will see any rainfall with Cristobal. With the way things look, most of southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma will have very minor amounts under half an inch. Once you hop over to the I-49 corridor, we could see rain amounts range between a quarter inch and one inch with heavier amounts picking up quite a bit as you work closer to Springfield.
Once the cold front clears out the rain chances, Wednesday still looks pretty good for us. We’ll actually have a chilly start with lows in the upper 50s before we see highs top out in the upper 70s for the afternoon. On top of that, we’re expecting nothing but mostly sunny skies across the area.
Thursday still looks good with mostly sunny skies and highs pushing back into the middle 80s. However, the upper level setup wants another upper level ridge to start building back in. Before it can do so, we’ll have a system pass by with some random pop-up t-storms for Friday and Saturday.
By next Sunday and early next week, we’ll sneak back under the upper level ridge’s control and send highs back near 90°. If you’re curious about how the rest of June and the whole month of July is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a great Monday!
Long range forecast through July:
Next Week: A hot first half of the week with highs near 90. A little cooler into the mid to upper 80s the second half of the week. However, with numerous weak waves rolling through, scattered thunderstorm chances each and every day. The best chances for storms is in the middle of the week.
June 21st-27th: Mainly a warm week with highs into the 80s. Slight chances for storms on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Coolest day of the week looks to be Friday.
June 28th-July 4th: Warm through the first half of the week with hotter temperatures the second half of the week. I don’t see extreme heat, just typical late June early July. Thunderstorms chances Monday through Wednesday, then again by the weekend which is the 4th. Side note, watching the tropics this week in the gulf.
July 5th-11th: A warm start to the week with a hot finish. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Saturday. Just afternoon pop up storms.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.